My latest: the war, one month later
- Apr 4
- 2 min read
Who is winning the war in Iran?
Donald Trump’s apparatchiks can call it whatever they want: it’s a war. And, a month later, it’s still raging.
A month ago, this writer made ten predictions about why the war. Let’s see how accurate they were.
Leadership. I said both Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu were unpopular in their respective countries - and might get less popular.
That has certainly been the case for Trump. As of today, Trump is the most unpopular president in recent polling history. Presently, Trump has 33 per cent support, a record low for him. Netanyahu, meanwhile, earned a 60 per cent “trust” figure from Israelis at the start of the war. Today, however, his Right-wing coalition would still fall short of a majority win.
Polls. This writer predicted the war would get very unpopular very fast. That has certainly been the case in the United States - and, to a lesser degree, in Israel.
A CNN poll released Wednesday showed Americans - nearly 70 per cent of them - disapprove or “strongly disapprove” of the war. That number is growing, CNN reported. Meanwhile, in Israel, an end-of-March poll had a different result: there, a nearly-identical number - nearly 70 per cent - approved of the war. That represents a substantial drop from the start of the conflict, when more than 82 per cent of Israelis were onside.
Regime change. At the start of the war, Trump said that his goal was regime change. I opined that was very unlikely without proverbial boots on the ground.
Tragically, the terroristic Islamic dictatorship is now even stronger than before. It has expanded the conflict to surrounding Arab states, effectively padlocked the crucial Strait of Hormuz, and hammered the global economy. No one now seriously expects regime change in Iran.
Broken promise. In November 2024, Trump told his supporters: “I’m not going to start a war. I’m going to stop wars.” After Iran - after military incursions in Venezuela, after threatening to use force to take over Greenland - few now believe Trump’s peacemaker pledge.
The political consequences of that broken promise? Trump’s Republicans now face a wipe-out in November’s midterms - loss of control in the House of Representatives is a certainty, and loss of his Senate majority is highly likely. Meanwhile, prominent members of Trump’s MAGA movement are rebelling in public, with some (Marjorie Taylor Greene, Tucker Carlson, Megyn Kelly) expressing outrage.
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Further to Steve's comment, can observe Trumps actions regarding ensuring a compliant JCS is in place. Once in place, yet another safeguard removed.
Warren,
I too expect big gains for the Democrats in the midterms but you know that party, expert at throwing away an opportunity. If the far left dominates the election discourse, then that will limit Democratic gains both in the House and Senate. I'm hopeful Trump can be brought to heel but I've got a bad feeling about it. Bernie is smart enough not to say anything that will blow the election. AOC and others in her generation, not so much...
Anyone else a little worried that the Mango Mussolini might decide to deploy a nuke, just to see what will happen? Certainly his toadies won't stop him, and others like Hegseth and Graham would probably cream their jeans for such a display of machismo. Trump has shown, time and time again, that he cares nothing for human life - so if he sees the writing on the wall for his future, who knows what he'll do.