Three crises facing Canada - and one passes

For months, Canada has been facing three existential threats, all happening in the back half of 2026.

The first is Donald Trump’s threats to impose crippling tariffs on a wide range of Canadian-made goods.  The outcome will be clearer by tomorrow, but the latest signals are not promising.

The second threat is the nascent Alberta separatist movement. While the separatists are presently far behind in public opinion soundings, reports about interference by unseen Russian and American forces are disturbing. Even if the federalist option prevails, Alberta-style separatism is unlikely to disappear.

The third existential threat was always the most grave one: a third referendum on Quebec separating from Canada, which has been a centrepiece of the Parti Québécois’ campaign platform since 2024.

The Trump tariff threat is serious, but likely short-term: the congressional midterm elections are less than three months away, and the U.S. President’s calamitous approach to economic relations is likely to be severely curtailed by the surging Democrats.

The Alberta separatist threat is consequential, too, but the separatists themselves never seemed to be ready for what the referendum they had been demanding. That vote, too, is just weeks away, and the Canada-wreckers are simply not going to win it.

The third threat - another Quebec sovereignty referendum - was always the most worrisome. It was unsettling because we are led by an anglophone Prime Minister with the worst French-language skills since Mike Pearson: in a pitched battle for the hearts and minds of Quebeckers, Mark Carney was never going to be able to communicate like a Jean Chretien or a Pierre or Justin Trudeau.

The Quebec separatism threat was also alarming because, as a country, we simply weren’t ready for it. Preoccupied by Trump, climate change, war and the cost of living, English-speaking Canadians had not been paying attention to the promise by Parti Québécois Leader Paul St-Pierre Plamondon to force another vote on leaving Canada.

Most of all, the PQ separation referendum promise was dire because the party is almost certainly going to win big majority government in October’s Quebec election. Outside the Island of Montreal and a few English-speaking enclaves, Plamondon has been way ahead of his rivals.

And then, this week, Plamandon did something shocking: he completely reversed himself on having a referendum anytime soon.

Here’s just what some of what Plamondon said.

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