Abacus: with Tory out, it's Bradford vs. Chow

John Tory - who I helped get elected, twice - is out. He made the right decision: as the Toronto Integrity Commissioner ruled, Tory broke the law, twice. He had to go.

As you all know, I months ago indicated I'd be supporting my friend and Beaches councillor Brad Bradford for the job. He represents positive change.

And, according to Abacus' David Coletto this morning, Toronto agrees. Check out these numbers and David's analysis:

"For the better part of a year, Toronto politics has been suspended in a kind of waiting game.

Would John Tory try to come back? Would he test whether voters were willing to give him another shot? That question is now settled.He announced yesterday that is not running in October 2026.

With that uncertainty gone, the mayoral race snaps into clearer focus. What looked like a potentially crowded contest now looks increasingly like a head-to-head between Olivia Chow and Brad Bradford. And based on polling we conducted in late January as part of our Toronto Omnibus survey, I see a competitive race that Bradford can win.

Let me start with the numbers.

We surveyed 1,001 adults living in Toronto between January 22 and 27. The margin of error is plus or minus 3.1 percentage points. The first thing we looked at was impressions.

Olivia Chow’s image is almost perfectly split. Thirty-nine percent of Torontonians say they have a positive impression of her. Forty percent say they have a negative one. Seventeen percent are neutral and a small share are unsure. That leaves her with a net impression score of minus one.

For an incumbent mayor more than halfway through a term, those are horrible numbers, but they aren’t strong either.

Brad Bradford’s numbers are different. Thirty-two percent have a positive impression of him. Sixteen percent have a negative one. A large share, about 1 in 5, don’t know enough about him to say.

That gives him a net impression score of plus sixteen.

In municipal politics incumbents often have a natural advantage. Bradford’s challenge is not that people dislike him. It is that many still do not know him.

When we ask the ballot question directly, the race is tight. If the election were held tomorrow and the candidates were Olivia Chow and Brad Bradford, 37 percent say they would vote for Chow. Thirty-four percent would vote for Bradford. Twenty-nine percent are undecided.

That slight lead is within the margin of error. And nearly three in ten voters have not made up their minds.

It gets even more interesting when we look only at those who say they are familiar with both candidates. Among that group, Chow is at 39 percent and Bradford at 38 percent. Undecided drops to 24 percent.

In other words, when voters know both of them, the race is even closer..."

Read David's full analysis here.